How to Know When to Sell Crypto
Most traders know when to buy. Few know when to sell. Here are 7 methods to know exactly when to exit — and avoid watching your profits disappear.
Everyone has a plan for buying crypto.
Almost nobody has a plan for selling it.
You buy Bitcoin at $60,000. It goes to $80,000. You're up 33%. Nice. But now what? Do you sell? Hold for $100,000? What if it drops back to $60,000 — or lower?
This is where most traders lose money. Not on bad entries — on bad exits. They either sell too early and watch the price keep climbing, or they hold too long and watch their profits evaporate.
I've been there. It's painful. And it's why I obsess over exit strategies more than entries.
Here's everything I've learned about knowing when to sell.
Why Selling Is Harder Than Buying
Buying feels exciting. You're getting into something with potential upside.
Selling feels like a series of bad options:
- Sell now? What if it keeps going up?
- Hold longer? What if it crashes?
- Sell some? How much? When?
There's also the psychology working against you:
- Greed: "Just a little more, then I'll sell."
- FOMO: "Everyone else is holding. I don't want to miss out."
- Regret aversion: "If I sell and it goes up, I'll feel stupid."
- Loss aversion: "It's down 20%. I'll wait until it recovers."
These emotions cause traders to do the opposite of what they should. They hold winners too long and losers even longer.
The solution isn't to fight your emotions — it's to make decisions before emotions take over.
The Core Principle: Decide When to Sell Before You Buy
This is the most important thing in this entire article.
Before you enter any trade, you should know:
- Where you'll take profit — at what price(s) you'll sell
- Where you'll cut losses — at what price you'll exit if wrong
- What conditions would change your thesis — when the trade is no longer valid
If you don't know these answers, you're not trading — you're gambling.
Let's look at specific methods to determine these levels.
Method 1: Predefined Take Profit Levels
The simplest approach. Before you buy, set specific prices where you'll sell.
Example:
- Buy Bitcoin at $60,000
- Sell 33% at $75,000 (25% gain)
- Sell 33% at $90,000 (50% gain)
- Hold 33% for $120,000+ or long-term
This is called "scaling out" or "laddering." You lock in gains at multiple levels instead of trying to time the perfect top.
Why it works:
- Removes emotion — the decision is already made
- Guarantees some profit if price rises
- Keeps you in the trade for more upside
- No regret if price keeps going — you still have exposure
The 2x Rule:
A popular variation: sell half when your investment doubles. If you buy $1,000 of ETH and it goes to $2,000, sell $1,000 (your original investment). Now you're "playing with house money" — whatever happens, you can't lose your initial investment.
Method 2: Stop Loss — Know When You're Wrong
A stop loss is a price where you exit if the trade goes against you.
Example:
- Buy Ethereum at $3,000
- Stop loss at $2,700 (10% below entry)
If price drops to $2,700, you sell. No questions. No "maybe it'll recover."
Why it works:
- Limits losses to a predefined amount
- Prevents small losses from becoming catastrophic
- Removes the "hope" emotion from losing trades
How to set a stop loss:
There's no perfect formula, but here are guidelines:
- Percentage-based: 5-15% below entry for swing trades, 2-5% for day trades
- Support-based: Below a key support level on the chart
- Volatility-based: Wide enough to avoid getting stopped by normal price swings
The wrong approach: setting a stop loss so tight that normal volatility triggers it, or so wide that it's meaningless.
Stop Loss Hunting
In crypto, large players sometimes push prices down briefly to trigger stop losses before the price rebounds. This is called "stop loss hunting." To avoid it, set stops slightly below obvious levels — not exactly at round numbers or visible support.
Method 3: Risk/Reward Ratio
Before entering a trade, calculate if it's worth taking.
Risk/Reward Ratio = Potential Profit ÷ Potential Loss
Example:
- Entry: $50,000
- Stop loss: $47,500 (risk: $2,500 or 5%)
- Take profit: $57,500 (reward: $7,500 or 15%)
- R:R = 15% ÷ 5% = 3:1
A 3:1 ratio means you make 3x what you risk. Even if you're wrong 50% of the time, you're profitable.
Rule of thumb: Don't take trades with less than 2:1 risk/reward. The math doesn't work long-term.
This answers "when to sell" in two ways:
- Sell when you hit your take profit (the reward)
- Sell when you hit your stop loss (the risk)
Method 4: Technical Signals
Technical analysis can identify when a trend is weakening or reversing. Here are signals that suggest it's time to sell:
Moving Average Crossovers
When a shorter moving average (like 50-day) crosses below a longer one (like 200-day), it's called a "death cross." This often signals a shift from uptrend to downtrend.
If you've been holding through an uptrend and see a death cross forming, it's worth considering an exit or at least reducing your position.
RSI Overbought
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) measures momentum. When RSI goes above 70, an asset is considered "overbought" — potentially due for a pullback.
RSI above 80 or 90 is extreme. Not a guarantee of a drop, but a warning sign.
Momentum Divergence
When price makes a new high but RSI makes a lower high, that's bearish divergence. It suggests the rally is losing steam, even though price is still rising.
This is one of the most reliable reversal signals — but it's also one of the hardest to spot without practice.
Method 5: Fear & Greed Index
The Fear & Greed Index measures overall market sentiment on a scale of 0-100:
- 0-25: Extreme Fear (market is scared)
- 25-45: Fear
- 45-55: Neutral
- 55-75: Greed
- 75-100: Extreme Greed (market is euphoric)
How to use it for selling:
When the index hits "Extreme Greed" (above 75-80), the market is likely overheated. This doesn't mean sell immediately, but it's a warning to start taking profits.
Historically, extreme greed precedes corrections. Not always immediately, but often within weeks.
The contrarian approach:
- Extreme Fear → Consider buying (others are panicking)
- Extreme Greed → Consider selling (others are euphoric)
This is hard emotionally — it means selling when everyone else is bullish and buying when everyone is bearish. But it's often the right move.
Method 6: Smart Money Tracking
"Smart money" refers to institutional investors, whales, and experienced traders. Tracking what they're doing can give you early signals.
What to watch:
- Accumulation vs Distribution: Are large wallets buying or selling? If whales are quietly sellin
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